The MSM (mainstream media) worldwide is trumpeting a report from the American research institute ISIS (US Institute for Science and International Security) which seems to reinforce their pacifism and defeatism regarding Iran when they put underline that ISIS reports that Iran won’t move towards a nuclear weapon in 2012.
Iran is unlikely to move toward building a nuclear weapon this year because it does not yet have the capability to produce enough weapon-grade uranium, a draft report by the Institute for Science and International Security said on Wednesday.
The report by the institute founded by nuclear expert David Albright offered a more temperate view of Iran’s nuclear program than some of the heated rhetoric that has surfaced since the United States and its allies stepped up sanctions on Tehran.
However, a very quick Google search brought me to the ISIS website itself where I found a report written by the same nuclear expert David Albright amongst others. Whether this report is the one mentioned above that is referred to in the media, or if this is a revised version, or if this is a completely different report I cannot say. But this report is the only one on this subject that I could find on the website at the moment and it says, surprisingly perhaps, something very different to those defeatist headlines being broadcast around the world. (Emphases are mine).
In the discussion regarding the nature of the Iranian nuclear program, some have sought to downplay Iran’s nuclear progress by emphasizing that Iran has not yet “made the decision to build a nuclear weapon.” While it is true and important that there are no indications that Iran has made a decision to actually construct a nuclear weapon, such a statement does not accurately portray the real concern about Iran’s nuclear program and progress. In fact, Iran has already made a series of important decisions that would give it the ability to quickly make nuclear weapons. In doing so, it has pursued a strategy of nuclear hedging: it has put together a gas centrifuge program to provide the necessary fuel for a weapon, worked on developing a nuclear weaponization capability, and developed a medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, all under ostensibly civilian purposes or great secrecy. The international community should not take ease in the absence of this final decision since Iran has already overcome many obstacles on the path to finally acquiring nuclear weapons. Whether or not Iran will ultimately build nuclear weapons depends greatly on what is done now. Given Iran’s steady, albeit slow progress, downplaying the threat can end up serving to undermine the development of non-military methods to keep Iran from building nuclear weapons.
I urge you to read the whole report. It is not very long and although I dispute some of its conclusions (for example that Iran has not already made the decision to acquire nuclear weapons) it certainly does not come to the conclusions as reported in the MSM.
The last paragraph in particular ought to make pacifists stop and think:
There is still time for the international community to find a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue. As Iran’s timeline to nuclear weapons decreases, however, there is an inversely increased urgency to find this resolution. It is unwise to measure this level of urgency by relying on the fact that there remains no evidence that Iran has taken the last step to actually construct a nuclear explosive device. Eschewing strengthened non-military options in the form of pressure and sanctions ignores this shortening timeline and makes it more likely that Iran will progress in its hedging strategy, augmenting the chance for armed conflict.
Since none of the media have provided a link to the ISIS report that they are talking about, I cannot judge whether their reporting is accurate. What I do know is that the ISIS report that I found seems to me a much more accurate assessment.